Donnelly Rules

Donnelly Rule 1

Candidates have to be in the frame on the first count

For a candidate to have a good chance of getting elected they have to be in the frame on the first count. This means that as a general rule in a five seat constituency the candidate has to come in the first five on the first count. In a three seat constituency the candidate has to be in the first three places and in the first four in a four seat constituency.

In the 2020 general election there were 21 candidates who came from outside the frame to get elected – a record in recent elections. In other words, 138 or 87% of those elected were within the frame on the first count. The idea of a “Lazarus” type recovery rarely happens and when this rule is broken it's usually from a position just outside the frame (but see the well known example of Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central in 2007). Transfers are important but they don’t always have the influence that often we think they do.

Seats changed by transfers: TDs who broke Rule 1

					1st Count			1st Count
	Constituency	Seats	Winner	Party	Position	Loser	Party	Position
1	Carlow-Kilkenny	5	Noonan, Malcolm	GP	7	Aylward, Bobby	FF	4
2	Clare	4	Carey, Joe	FG	5	Dooley, Timmy	FF	3
3	Cork East	4	Stanton, David	FF	2	O'Keeffe, Kevin	FF	2
4	Cork North-Central	4	Barry, Mick	SPBP	5	O'Flynn, Kenneth	NP	4
5	Cork South-West	3	Cairns, Holly	SD	5	Lombard, Tim	FG	3
6	Donegal	5	Pringle, Thomas	NP	6	Gallagher, Pat the Cope	FF	5
7	Dublin Central	4	Gannon, Gary	SD	5	Fitzpatrick, Mary	FF	4
8	Dublin Mid-West	4	Kenny, Gino	SPBP	5	Curran, John	FF	3
9	Dublin South-Central	4	Costello, Patrick	GP	5	Byrne, Catherine	FG	2
10	Dublin South-Central	4	Collins, Joan	I4C	6	Ardagh, Catherine	FG	3
11	Dun Laoghaire	4	Devlin, Cormac	FF	7	Mitchell O'Connor, Mary	FG	4
12	Galway East	3	Rabbitte, Anne	FF	5	O'Hara, Louis	SF	2
13	Kildare North	4	Durkan, Bernard	FG	5	O'Rourke, Frank	FF	4
14	Kildare South	3	Berry, Cathal	NP	5	O'Loughlin, Fiona	FF	3
15	Limerick County	3	O'Donoghue, Richard	NP	4	Ó Ceallaigh, Seigin	SF	3
16	Longford-Westmeath	4	Burke, Peter	FG	5	Moran, Kevin Boxer	NP	4
17	Mayo	4	Dillon, Alan	FG	6	Chambers, Lisa	FF	4
18	Meath West	3	English, Damien	FG	4	Cassells, Shane	FF	3
19	Sligo-Leitrim	4	Feighan, Frankie	FG	5	Scanlon, Eamonn	FF	4
20	Waterford	4	Ó Cathasaigh, Marc	GP	6	Cummins, John	FG	4
21	Wexford	5	Murphy, Verona	NP	7	D'Arcy, Michael	FG	4
	Total 2020	21	13%			Broke both rules: 7
	Total 2016	12	8%
	Total 2011	11	7%
	Total 2007	14	8%
	Total 2002	18	11%
	Total 1997	18	11%
	Total 1992	16	10%
	Total 1989	14	8%
	Total 1987	16	10%

Donnelly Rule 2

Candidates must have at least half a quota on the first count

A candidate must have at least half a quota on the first count to have any chance of getting elected. Only 11 of those elected in 2020 got below half a quota on the first count. In other words 93% of those elected had at least half a quota on the first count. It is important to note that half a quota will not guarantee a seat but less than that level will leave a candidate with very little chance of getting elected. Two interesting exceptions in 2020 are Dublin South Central where Joan Collins retained her seat with just a third of a quota on the first count, and two candidates with over half a quota failed to be elected; and Waterford where Marc Ó Cathasaigh managed to be elected despite starting with 0.28 of a quota.

Winning candidates with less than half a quota on the first count: TDs who broke Rule 2

	Constituency	Seats	Elected	Party	Quota
1	Carlow-Kilkenny	5	Noonan, Malcolm	GP	0.4
2	Cork North-Central	4	Barry, Mick	SPBP	0.4
3	Cork South-West	3	Cairns, Holly	SD	0.4
4	Donegal	5	Pringle, Thomas	NP	0.4
5	Dublin Fingal	5	Smith, Duncan	GP	0.4
6	Dublin South-West	5	Duffy, Francis	GP	0.4
7	Dublin South-West	5	Murphy, Paul	SPBP	0.4
8	Limerick City	4	Leddin, Brian	GP	0.4
9	Mayo	4	Dillon, Alan	FG	0.4
10	Sligo-Leitrim	4	Feighan, Frankie	FG	0.4
11	Waterford	4	Ó Cathasaigh, Marc	GP	0.3
	Total 2020	11	=11/159	7%
	Total 2016	8	=8/158	5%
	Total 2011	4	=4/166	2%
	Total 2007	2	=2/166	1%
	Total 2002	2	=2/166	1%
	Total 1997	3	=3/166	2%
	Total 1992	2	=2/166	1%
	Total 1989	3	=3/166	2%
			Broke both rules: 7